U.S. troop buildup in Iraq falling short
Amid 'surge,' forces have been unable to establish security, even for
themselves. Military leaders say they just need more time.
By Julian E. Barnes and Ned Parker
Times Staff Writers

July 11, 2007

BAGHDAD — In the Ubaidi neighborhood in the eastern part of this city,
American soldiers hired a local Iraqi to clean the Porta-Potties at their
combat outpost. Before the man could start, members of the local Shiite
militia threatened to kill him.

Today, the Porta-Potties are roped off, and the U.S. soldiers, who could
not promise to protect their sewage man, are forced to burn their waste.

As part of the Bush administration's troop "surge" strategy, the U.S. unit
here had moved into an abandoned potato chip factory hoping to push out
the militia, protect existing jobs and provide stability for economic
growth. Instead, militia members stymied development projects, cut off the
water supply and executed two young Iraqi women seen talking to U.S.
soldiers, sending a powerful message about who really controls Ubaidi's
streets.

In the next few days, the Bush administration is scheduled to release a
preliminary assessment of its overall Iraq strategy. Officials may point
to signs of progress scattered across the country: a reduction in
death-squad killings in Baghdad, agreements with tribal leaders in Al
Anbar province, offensives north and south of the capital.

President Bush defended his strategy Tuesday, demanding Congress give his
administration more time and insisting that America can "win this fight in
Iraq." To underscore his request, Bush sent top aides to lobby lawmakers
on Capitol Hill.

But as the experience of the troops in Ubaidi indicates, U.S. forces so
far have been unable to establish security, even for themselves. Iraqis
continue to flee their homes, leaving mixed areas and seeking safety in
religiously segregated neighborhoods. About 32,000 families fled in June
alone, according to figures compiled by the United Nations and the Iraqi
government that are due to be released next week.

U.S. forces have staged offensives to push insurgents out of some safe
havens. But many of the insurgents have escaped to new areas of the
country, launching attacks where the U.S. presence is lighter.

And there has been no sign of any of the crucial political progress the
administration had hoped to see in Iraq.

U.S. commanders are painfully aware that they are running out of time to
change those realities. Army Gen. David H. Petraeus, the top American
commander in Iraq, has made several efforts to slow the clock in
Washington. Each time, it has sped up.

The full complement of the "surge" arrived in Iraq last month, bringing
the total to 28,500 additional troops. Military officers originally hoped
to have until 2008 before they had to render a verdict on the strategy.
Then the Washington timeframe shrank to September. Now, it is shrinking
further, with Congress demanding answers even sooner.

Supporters of the troop buildup insist that small steps could grow into
larger and more long-term successes if lawmakers are patient.

"Right now we are three weeks into this. It's not like flipping a light
switch," said a military officer in Baghdad, expressing the frustration of
many commanders. "Time has to be given for things to work."

Commanders point to Ramadi, the capital of Al Anbar province, as a
showcase for the kind of results the military wants from the current
strategy. Once a battlefield, the city is now largely peaceful, calm
enough that in March, Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri Maliki was able to pay
his first official visit.

But military officers stress that it took about nine months of sustained
effort to make Ramadi a relatively pacified city. And with its volatile
mix of Sunni and Shiite Muslims, Baghdad presents a far more complex
challenge than all-Sunni Ramadi.

The interim progress report that Bush promised to release this week is
likely to emphasize the success the military has had in killing Sunni
militants in the "Baghdad belts," the cities and towns that dot the major
rivers and highways leading to the capital. In recent weeks, the newly
arrived U.S. forces have been focused on fighting members of Al Qaeda in
Iraq, a militant Sunni group made up of Iraqis and foreign fighters.

Top generals say the strategy is crucial to securing Baghdad. Only by
controlling the routes into the capital, and denying militants safe
havens, can the U.S. and Iraqi militaries keep out the car bombs that
stoke sectarian violence inside the capital.

But leading Iraqis are less sure of the strategy.

Mahmoud Othman, a Kurdish member of the Iraqi parliament, said the U.S.
approach may be successful at weakening Al Qaeda in Iraq. But he said
Americans would not be able to solve Iraq's sectarian conflict or stop
clashes between armed groups in Baghdad neighborhoods.

"The surge has an important effect in fighting Al Qaeda," the independent
politician said. "On the Sunni-Shiite conflict, it hasn't had any effect….
Extremist Shiites and Sunnis are fighting each other. The Americans can't
stop this."

U.S. officials have made little, if any, progress with their persistent
calls for Iraqi officials to take steps toward reconciliation between
Shiites and Sunnis.

Key administration officials, most prominently Defense Secretary Robert M.
Gates and Vice President Dick Cheney, have visited Iraq to push for
passage of an oil-revenue sharing law, provincial elections and reform of
rules barring members of the former ruling Baath Party from government
jobs.

But the Iraqi government is bogged down by fighting among Shiite, Sunni
and Kurdish parties. It is unclear whether the oil law, the one piece of
benchmark legislation still given hopes for passage before September, will
reach a vote any time soon.

The number of death-squad killings in the capital, one sign of sectarian
divisions, is down from earlier this year. But the number remains roughly
at the level seen after the 2006 bombing of Samarra's Golden Mosque, which
served as a catalyst for the extreme sectarian violence.

In Baghdad, the number of bodies found dumped in the streets dropped to
540 last month from 830 in January. Some American officers say those
numbers could rise again. And others say that the decline may simply
represent the depressing reality that most Baghdad neighborhoods are now
segregated, meaning there are fewer people left for death squads to kill.

Maj. Gen. Joseph Fil Jr., the commander of U.S. forces in Baghdad, said
that American troops at the end of June controlled about 42% of the city's
neighborhoods, up from 19% in April.

But to many Iraqis, that is little comfort.

"The Americans do not make me feel safe," said Amin Sadiq, a 30-year-old
Shiite worker in the Ghadeer neighborhood of east Baghdad. "When you hear
the speeches of the top U.S. military leaders, you think that everything
is ideal and perfect and Iraq will be better. But when you see how the
U.S. soldiers behave, I really feel I should not trust the leaders."

The American military has helped bring a tense truce in some areas, but
has not re-integrated once-mixed neighborhoods.

The western Baghdad neighborhood of Ghazaliya, once a prosperous mixed
middle-class area, was riven by sectarian violence in 2006. It is now
divided between Shiites in the northern end and Sunnis in the south, with
the U.S. military stuck in the middle, trying to keep the peace.

"Last year, things were bad. This year is worse than before," said a man
in his 50s who identified himself as Qais Qaisi.

The presence of Iraqi and American security forces means that Sunnis
cannot fight back against the Shiite militias, which have the tacit
support of the Iraqi army unit in the area, Qaisi said. But he
nevertheless voiced concern about a possible American pullout.

"If the multinational forces withdraw, there will be very bloody sectarian
battles," he said.

Military officers routinely say that improving the economy is a
prerequisite to improving security. And U.S. forces, by putting up
barriers and controlling traffic, have been able to reopen some
marketplaces that had been targeted by suicide bombers. Although that has
allowed some neighborhood commerce, success with other projects has proved
more elusive.

The Pentagon is working to reopen state-owned factories and has identified
several dozen that can be renovated and restarted. But that work is slow,
and many residents say they see few improvements in their neighborhoods.

Although U.S. forces have been able to overcome militia threats and start
small neighborhood projects such as installing streetlights, they are not
able to initiate larger undertakings.

"We aren't doing anything meaningful," said one mid-level noncommissioned
officer. "Where are the real projects? We aren't offering these people
enough safety, or money, or jobs."

Amid the political setbacks and continuing violence, however, there are
signs of relative calm in some areas.

Earlier this year, the streets of Baghdad were desolate at sunset. Now, in
places, there are signs of life.

In Yarmouk, a neighborhood in west Baghdad, 18-year-old Ahmed Shakir used
to see bodies on the street every day. Snipers fired from hidden perches
and gunmen clashed with U.S. and Iraqi soldiers. But last month, after
weeks of U.S. patrols, his neighborhood started to feel safe — safe enough
for Shakir to stay outside on the basketball court until 8:30 p.m.

"It is usually me and three of my friends, we always go play basketball,"
he said. "Now we have U.S. and Iraqi patrols roaming the streets every
day. If they continued doing this, things will remain better. If not, then
it will get worse for sure."


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